MOTOWN RUNS OUT OF GAS — The Weekly Opine

Coach Dan Campbell’s stellar season ended when analytics bit him in the Detroit Lions biggest game of the season. (Photo credit Sports Illustrated)

Led astray by analytics

Back in 2016, when the Chicago Cubs were steaming toward their first World Series championship in 108 years, I recall watching a Cubs playoff game. Cannot remember the opponent and that’s not important. What I remember is one of the teams put in a relief pitcher and the television broadcaster – Fox? – promptly displayed statistics about the pitcher. The graphic had a lot of information, too much for my needs.

The graphic went something like this: “On weekday games when the sun is shining on the East Coast, and he enters the game in the 6th inning with at least a 2-run lead, he only allows homeruns to lefthanded hitters who were born in the summer but are under 30 years old.” OK, of course I exaggerate. But I did say out loud that day, “Too much information! I just want to watch the game!”

Fast-forward eight years and analytics have taken over sports. Coaches, pundits, and fans are obsessed with analytics and, coupled with inescapable information about betting on the games, it’s a quagmire for anyone who just wants to settle back and enjoy a 3-hour respite from a world that’s gone looney tunes crazy.

Coach of the Year slips up

Last Sunday night we watched an analytics-driven meltdown when the Detroit Lions’ Dan Campbell, who deserves Coach of the Year this season, let the analytics mime sitting on his shoulder influence him into making two decisions that will go down as among the most godawful in NFL history. Especially, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

Campbell has been near flawless his first three seasons with Detroit. He took over arguably the NFL’s worst franchise and steadily improved its won-loss record from 3-13-1 in Year One, 9-8 in Year Two and this year’s record of 14-6, including a division championship and two playoff victories. The Lions are one of sports’ best stories and proof the right coach, who instills the right culture, can do marvels. But Campbell’s double mind-cramp in the NFC title game will go down as legendary. (Actually, three mind-cramps if you count blowing a timeout near the goal line but there is limited space for this article.)

A chance for Detroit to play for the Super Bowl trophy was squandered when the team’s coaches melted down in the second half. (Photo credit The Weekly Opine)

Seattle’s Pete Carroll will forever hold the title for dumbest decision in NFL history. Late in Super Bowl XLIX, versus New England and facing 2nd and goal from the 1-yard line, Carroll opted to pass the football. Rather than hand the ball to his bowling ball, bull-in-a-China-shop fullback appropriately nicknamed “The Beast,” Carroll called for a slant pass that was easily intercepted by an alert New England cornerback. So, instead of hoisting the Super Bowl trophy, Carroll was seated atop the Bad Decision Throne.)

Detroit, after thoroughly dominating the San Francisco 49ers in the first half, including running the football 21 times for 148 yards and a punishing 24-7 lead, sputtered in the second half. The brain-cramping Lions chose to run the ball only seven times in the second half. (Running the ball means the clock keeps ticking which leaves less time for your opponent to mount a comeback.

Then, when presented golden opportunities to take some of the steam out of San Francisco’s comeback and reclaim momentum for Detroit, Campbell chose instead to do what he’d done many times during the regular season; go for it on 4th down. CBS showed graphics saying analytics agreed – go for it said the numbers crunchers! The trouble is, going for it on 4th down in October and November, against the likes of the Chicago Bears, is one thing. Going for it on 4th down with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line is entirely different. And the head coach must recognize the difference. Campbell didn’t.

When Detroit went for it on 4th down the first time, they lead 24-10. Kicking a field goal would have knocked some of the wind from the 49er’s sails. And a 27-10 lead would’ve meant San Francisco needed to score three times to tie the game. Shortly thereafter Campbell, listening to the analytics mime as if he’d been given a prescription to take two, went for it a second time on 4th down instead of kicking a field goal. And the Lions were stopped short on 4th down for a second time. Consequently, Campbell left six points on the table in a game Detroit lost by just three points.

Buoyed by Campbell’s poor judgment, San Francisco continued steamrolling Detroit in the second half, outscoring the Lions 27-7 for a final score of 34-31.

Like anything, too much analytics can spoil the fun. (Photo credit The Weekly Opine)

Too much information

Don’t take this as a diss against sports analytics. I “get” sports analytics. But there needs to be context.

For example, a favorite analytic in basketball is what’s known as a player’s plus/minus. It is calculated for each player and is an indicator of a player’s value. Let’s say your team has two players, Jackson and Smith, who play the same position. And let’s say that in their most recent game, when Jackson was on the court, the team outscored their opponent by 9 points. And when Smith was on the court the team was outscored by their opponent by 7 points. That gives Jackson a plus/minus of +9 while Smith’s plus/minus is -7.

The analytics crowd will swear Jackson is more valuable than Smith. But what is the context? Was Jackson on the court along with his team’s four best players? Was Smith on the court with fellow substitute players? Was Jackson on the court when the opponent was resting its two best players? Was Smith on the court with fellow substitute players playing against the other team’s starting lineup?

It’s not as simple as feeding data into a computer. Many of these analytics diehards never actually played sports but now exert an outsized influence on coach’s decisions.

The beauty of sports is the human, emotional element as well as strategy and tactics tailored to the scale of the moment. While there certainly is a need for analytics, blindly following data, without context, can cause you to make game-blowing, season-ending decisions.

Just ask Dan Campbell.