THE NUKE REALITY

North Korea, U.S. threaten to go nuclear. Sure hope deterrence prevails.

On August 6, 1945, the United States of America dropped a uranium atomic bomb called “Little Boy” on Hiroshima, Japan, instantly killing 80,000 mostly civilian people.

Three days later, on August 9, the U.S. repeated this devastating act, dropping a plutonium atomic bomb called “Fat Boy” on Nagasaki, Japan, instantly killing another 70,000 mostly civilian people.

Approximately 200,000 more people would die in Japan, some within months, some years later from exposure to fallout and radiation.

Over the past seven decades the number of nuclear-armed nations grew from just the United States to include Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea.

According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the Federation of American Scientists, today there are approximately 15,000 nuclear weapons in the world. Combined, the U.S. and Russia have 13,800 nukes, divided almost equally, which must please President Trump who was quoted saying “let it be an arms race” referring to the U.S. and Russia.

The United States remains the only nation to use nuclear weapons against humans.

As more nations acquire nukes, the preference is hydrogen as the destructive component. H-bombs are up to 1,000 times more powerful than atomic bombs (A-bombs). And H-bombs can be made smaller to better fit on a missile, which is what North Korea has been working feverishly on the past few years.

Mounting a nuclear bomb on a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is nirvana for those with nuclear aspirations, and is a critical milestone in achieving mutually assured destruction and deterrence status against an opponent who already possesses nuclear-enabled ICBMs.

The concept is that when two adversaries have ICBMs capable of delivering nuclear warheads, they mutually assure the destruction of one another. This reality, hopefully, convinces said adversaries to deter from using nukes.

Iran, who along with North Korea is one of the United States’ most reviled enemies, was working on The Bomb until President Obama and other world leaders negotiated an agreement to delay Iran’s nuclear aspirations for at least ten years. This was viewed positively by experienced, senior diplomats around the world.

Despite what Fox Lies (News) and the Trump administration say, the deal with Iran was lauded as sensible by anyone with a lick of global strategic knowledge. One result of Trump undoing U.S. participation in the agreement is Iran, with materials-sharing help from North Korea, appears to have re-started its nuclear program.

With or without Iran going nuclear, the grim reality is the world is closer to nuclear destruction than at any time since the early-1980’s.

During the 1960’s Cuban missile crisis only two countries had nuclear weapons. Fortunately, U.S. President John Kennedy and Soviet President Nikita Khrushchev both knew when to say when, i.e. understood the finality of mutually assured destruction. Deterrence carried the day.

Today, with every North Korean ICBM test Trump becomes more unhinged. He blusters threats at Kim Jong Un, followed by Kim blatantly crossing the newly issued Trump red line.

Truthfully, we should feel no worse now that loony tune Kim Jong Un has nukes. Because the scarier of the two is Trump, a man so mentally unstable, infantile and overly sensitive he could launch a preemptive attack over the smallest slight.

It’s no coincidence that around the time of Trump’s inauguration, the Doomsday Clock, determined by the Science and Security Board, was moved from three minutes to midnight to two and a half minutes to midnight; the closest to midnight the clock has been since the early 1980’s.

What then, short of rational, diplomatic men like Kennedy and Khrushchev, will keep the U.S. and North Korea from taking the final, no-turning-back plunge into mushroom cloud abyss?

(Don’t count on Dennis Rodman to settle the dispute between his friends Trump and Kim Jong Un.)

If it takes North Korea having the capability to hit the U.S. with a nuclear strike (China and Russia can already do this) to deter Trump from unleashing nukes on North Korea, and potentially starting a world-ending war, then so be it.

The notion that Kim Jong Un, or Iran for that matter, wants to execute a first-strike against the U.S. is, at best, conjecture and at worst absurd. Both countries know that would mean the end of their regimes. It is more likely the U.S. would pre-emptively strike North Korea, unless the codes are taken away from Trump.

Some U.S. officials say that North Korea likely aspires to minimum-level, long-range nuclear capability to deter the U.S. from doing what we did to Iraq, invade without cause.

As for Iran, as difficult as it is to put yourself in their shoes, the fact is America has surrounded Iran for nearly 20 years, fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq (look at a map if you don’t believe it).

Ponder what the U.S. would do if, for 20 years, China camped out in Canada and Mexico fighting endless wars. Doubtful the U.S. would sit idle, with our fingers crossed, hoping the Chinese would leave.

Purely from the standpoint of human survival instinct, it shouldn’t be a surprise Iran wants the nuclear deterrent. The surprise would be if Iran said, “America, please take your time, stay another 20 years!” (The intent here is not, in any manner, to defend Iran but to recognize a reality too many Americans pretend not to see.)

Bad man Kim Jong Un likely has a better grasp of history than Trump. He knows about America’s imperialistic tendencies. Kim’s people have seen it up close in the Korean and Vietnam wars. They know about America and “regime change.”

Not in any way to diminish the bravery of Americans who fought valiantly in those wars, but that’s not Kim Jong Un’s concern. Kim, frankly and to be blunt, does not give a damn about American heroism.

Kim likely believes that, to stave off potential American intrusion – U.S. troops, after all, have been stationed near the demilitarized zone since the end of the Korean War 64 years ago – requires a clear and present North Korean nuclear capability. This includes ICBMs that can reach America’s Lower 48.

So North Korea hustles to get their nuke program fully operational, testing ICBMs (as do China, India and Pakistan) that are now capable of hitting the U.S. mainland.

North Korea’s actions are especially exacerbated given the most ignorant, unpredictable president in U.S. history bellows like a paranoid, stoned fool, while the nuclear codes are within his reach.

In a previously incomprehensible, unthinkable scenario it may be the world’s best hope of keeping the Doomsday Clock from striking midnight, and reducing humankind into an incinerated Cinderella, for North Korea to become ICBM-nuke operational, thus acting as a deterrent to the frothing, bully president of the United States.

The same United States that is the only nation in history to drop nukes on humans.

Douglas FreelandDecember 21, 2017